What $1 Million Actually Pays You for 30 Years: The Full Table
"Can I retire on $1 million?" is usually answered with a rule of thumb. We did the boring thing instead: a year-by-year table, three return scenarios, withdrawals growing with inflation — all computed by the same engine as our retirement calculator.
The most-quoted answer to "can I retire on $1 million?" is the 4% rule: take $40,000 the first year, raise it with inflation, and history says a 30-year retirement survives. What that answer almost never shows you is the year-by-year path — the decade where the balance barely moves, and the final decade where the conservative case runs out of money. So we built the table. Every number below is computed by the same deterministic engine behind the retirement withdrawal calculator: start at $1,000,000, withdraw $40,000 in year one, grow the withdrawal 2% a year for inflation, and compound the balance at 5% (base), 3% (conservative), or 7% (optimistic).
The 30-year balance table
Balance at the end of each milestone year, in nominal dollars:
| Scenario | Year 1 | Year 5 | Year 10 | Year 15 | Year 20 | Year 25 | Year 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative (3%) | $990,000 | $938,501 | $844,229 | $709,571 | $525,456 | $281,090 | $0 |
| Base (5%) | $1,010,000 | $1,046,681 | $1,082,361 | $1,101,515 | $1,096,831 | $1,058,690 | $974,501 |
| Optimistic (7%) | $1,030,000 | $1,163,775 | $1,368,626 | $1,628,501 | $1,962,695 | $2,397,971 | $2,971,540 |
Three things the table makes visible that a rule of thumb hides:
- The base case is flatter than people expect. A $1M portfolio paying an inflation-adjusted 4% at a 5% net return hovers around $1.0–1.1M for twenty years ($1,082,361 at year 10, $1,096,831 at year 20) before drifting down to $974,501. The "4% rule works" story is really "the base case coasts for two decades, then declines."
- The conservative case fails exactly when you are most vulnerable. At a 3% return the balance slides every single year and hits zero in year 30 — age 95 if you retired at 65. That is precisely when medical costs peak and going back to work stops being an option.
- The optimistic case is doing something different. At 7%, growth outruns withdrawals so thoroughly ($2,971,540 at year 30) that you would leave more than you started with. Which scenario you get is not knowable in advance — that is the whole argument for planning on a range.
The withdrawal side of the table
Meanwhile the amount you actually take home climbs every year: $40,000 in year 1 becomes $71,034 by year 30, purely from 2% inflation. If you had planned on a flat $40,000, your year-30 purchasing power would be about $22,524 in today's dollars. Constant-dollar planning quietly cuts your lifestyle in half over a long retirement; inflation-adjusted withdrawals are why the balance path bends down at the end.
What rate would be safe in all three?
We had the engine solve for it: with a 5% average return and 2% inflation over 30 years, the highest first-year withdrawal that never depletes is about 5.2% — call it $51,611 a year from $1 million. But "safe in the base case" is not "safe": at a 3% return, even the classic 4% rate is what pushes the portfolio to zero at year 30 in this deterministic world. The honest conclusion is not a number, it is a margin: pick a rate, then hold enough cushion — or flexible spending — for the conservative row.
What about $1.5 million?
Same 4% logic, $60,000 a year: the base case ends at $1,461,752 after 30 years, but the conservative case still depletes in year 30. Doubling-ish the balance buys breathing room, not immunity — the withdrawal rate, not the balance, is the lever that determines whether the money outlives the plan. And if $60,000 is the real target, the fastest fix is often on the income side: the Social Security calculator and pension calculator can cover a third of it before the portfolio contributes a dollar.
Run your own version of this table
The retirement calculator combines accumulation and withdrawal in one projection, the retirement withdrawal calculator reproduces exactly this table with your own balance, rate, and spending, and the FIRE calculator works backwards from your spending to the balance you need. Every one of them shows all three scenario bands and exports the year-by-year table as CSV, so you can check our math instead of trusting it. Remember the limits of the exercise: these are deterministic scenarios at assumed returns, not forecasts — real markets move in sequences, not straight lines.
Frequently asked questions
Is $1 million enough to retire on?
It depends on spending, not the balance. At the classic 4% rule, $1 million supports a $40,000 first-year withdrawal. In our base scenario (5% return, 2% inflation) the portfolio survives 30 years and ends near $975,000; in the conservative scenario (3% return) it runs dry in year 30.
Why does the withdrawal grow every year?
Because prices do. A flat $40,000 for 30 straight years is a quietly shrinking lifestyle — at 2% inflation, $40,000 in year 30 buys what about $22,100 buys today. Our simulation raises the withdrawal with inflation each year, so the table shows constant purchasing power, not constant dollars.
What withdrawal rate would survive all three scenarios?
Using the engine's solve-for-rate function: with a 5% average return and 2% inflation over 30 years, the portfolio supports roughly a 5.2% first-year rate before the base scenario depletes. But the conservative scenario at that rate depletes years earlier — the rate you pick is really a bet about returns, which is why we show three scenarios instead of one number.
What does $1.5 million change?
At the same 4% rule, $1.5 million supports $60,000 a year. In the base scenario it ends the 30 years at about $1.46 million; in the conservative scenario it also runs dry in year 30. The bigger balance buys comfort in the base case, not immunity in the bad one — withdrawal rate still does the heavy lifting.
How do Social Security and a pension change the math?
They shrink the gap the portfolio must fill. If Social Security covers $25,000 of a $60,000 lifestyle, the portfolio only needs to produce $35,000 — and the Social Security calculator and pension calculator estimate those income lines before you size the withdrawal.
Where can I run this with my own numbers?
The retirement calculator ties the accumulation and withdrawal phases together; the retirement withdrawal calculator focuses on the spending phase with the same year-by-year table and CSV export; and the FIRE calculator works backwards from your spending to the target balance.